Geoeconomic Fragmentation

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Advanced economies are expected to slow from 2.6 percent in 2022 to 1.5 percent in 2023 and 1.4 percent in 2024 as policy tightening starts to bite. 

The baseline forecast is for global growth to slow from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in 2023 and 2.9 percent in 2024, well below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent.

Given increasing concerns about geoeconomic fragmentation, part of the report assesses how disruptions to global trade in commodities can affect commodity prices, economic activity, and the green energy transition.  The report does not factor in the recent Israel-Hamas war – the latest Gaza conflict.